Authors: Isabella C. Richmond1*, Michael A. Paulauskas1, Erica Padvaiskas1, Laura Carolina Gonzalez Sinisterra2, Kayleigh Hutt-Taylor1, Alec L. Robitaille3, Carly D. Ziter1

1 Department of Biology, Concordia University, Montreal Canada, H4B 1R6
2 Department of Biology, Universidad del Valle, Cali Columbia, 760042 3 Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John’s Canada, A1C 5S7

* isabella.richmond@mail.concordia.ca, 438-439-8064

Model Diagnostic Plots

These model diagnostic plots assess whether the chains of our models are converged and well mixed, and if the model is well specified and has an adequate fit.

The first plot of the series shows trace plots for each of our parameters, where we want to see stationary and well-mixed chains. The second plot shows an autocorrelation plot by chain and parameter. We want our autocorrelation to quickly drop to zero with increasing lag. Thirdly, the Gelman plot indicates if the chains converge, where we want the value to decrease by the end of runtime. Finally, we have the posterior predictive check where we want the black line to be within/close to the blue lines, to indicate that our model is adequately generative.

Model 1: Total Effect of Past Land-Use on Temperature

Model 2a: Direct Effect of Past Land-Use on Large Tree (>= 5 cm DBH) Density

Model 2b: Direct Effect of Past Land-Use on Small Tree (< 5 cm DBH) Density

Model 3a: Direct Effect of Past Land-Use on Large Tree (>= 5 cm DBH) Density

Model 3b: Direct Effect of Past Land-Use on Small Tree (< 5 cm DBH) Density

Model 4: Direct Effect of Past Land-Use on Large Tree (>= 5 cm DBH) Species Richness

Model 5: Direct Effect of Forest Composition on Temperature